2026 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round Three - Day Two Writeup 🐢

Men’s Singles :

De Minaur vs Svajda :

The landscape of the tour changes so quickly. A month or two ago I was looking at Svajda’s record on clay and seeing that he really struggled on the surface. He then made the round of 16 at Roland Garros, including a 5 set win against Francisco Cerundolo. A week after that I was eyeing Svajda’s stats on grass and remarking that he really hadn’t done much of note. Now he’s into the third round of Wimbledon and just defeated the Hertogenbosch title winner (Majrchrzak). It was a good performance from Svajda, and his first experiences on tour were him getting wildcards into the US Open as a teenager, so it’s great to see the vision coming to fruition on all surfaces.

This is a matchup De Minaur is supposed to win, but it doesn’t feel safe. Svajda just beat the guy who beat De Minaur in Hertogenbosch, and new results in a tournament mean the previous ceiling for a player is usually in motion. Svajda is playing the best tennis he ever has on grass, and has very little pressure. De Minaur also has looked pretty human over the past year, with his backhand no longer looking automatic and his new service delivery leading to some roller coaster performances week to week on serve. It’s hard for these guys who win on focus and output to really maintain it forever, which is one of the reasons why Nadal was so impressive. ADM has been one of the best gatekeepers on tour since very early in his career, and that’s just harder and harder to keep up as you grow older and your career becomes more and more defined. De Minaur’s ceiling is known at this point, so while he still competes, every little injury closes the door a little bit more on the ability to improve or adjust things. It’s not all doom and gloom obviously, but sometimes things are just good. De Minaur is comfortable financially, his relationship seems very healthy, and his hair is very nice. The knee injury was a tough setback, and it’s hard to really get back to the exact level you were at.

Storytelling aside, Svajda had an interesting matchup dynamic with Majchrzak. Kamil rushed the net often, and Svajda is very good at hitting passes. Majchrzak didn’t implode or anything, but he kept trying to apply pressure and rush Svajda and it just ended up putting him in spots where he made errors or got caught moving in too soon. I think De Minaur is more calculated with his approaches, but Svajda won a lot of the backhand exchanges last match and I think he will here also. Svajda serves bigger than Alex also, so after a long paragraph about difficulty grinding, the only way he wins this match is if he grinds. I’m expecting a close match with a lot of 50/50 service games, but one where De Minaur’s speed and consistency make the difference. Calling for defense to win on grass isn’t ideal, but grass rewards offense and athleticism and I think De Minaur will be more patient than Majchrzak. De Minaur in 4-5.

Khachanov vs Cobolli :

Khachanov and Cobolli have only met once, a 2 set win for Khachanov on clay in 2024. This meeting is much more significant, as both will like their chances against De Minaur in the 4th, and might have a good shout at being fresher than Dimitrov/Berrettini/Bergs/Fery in the round of 16. I caught a good chunk of both of their matches leading into this, and I am leaning towards Khachanov taking this.

Khachanov and Hanfmann looked like a close contest to me going in, but Hanfmann was completely ineffective. I’m not sure if he was feeling well after the previous round, but he basically only won points where he landed his first serve. Khachanov broke him often, and Hanfmann didn’t get many looks at Karen’s serve. Khachanov has always been decent on grass and has elevated at the majors earlier in his career (a consistent quarterfinalist), so this is a good sign. Cobolli sort of painted a different picture for me. Duckworth gave him a lot of trouble in the first set, and likely should have taken it before the tiebreaker. Cobolli gave up a lead in the tiebreaker again, and had to make a near perfect pass down the line to get it back. For Duckworth, his level was solid, but he blinked in the big moments. Cobolli was nervous earlier in the sets, but once you’re into a tiebreaker it’s easy to elevate and play your best for that five minute patch. Cobolli struggled with shanks and errors throughout, and had a tough time breaking Duckworth. I do think James backed off the aggression on big points, and that’s something Khachanov won’t.

Karen Khachanov isn’t really the type to beat you by surprise. He plays a very steady game and he hits heavy groundstrokes. If he’s able to wear you down, he does. I think that steady play here is a very good formula against Cobolli. Flavio has hit some tremendous serves and played well behind his forehand, but he’s not looked totally comfortable from the baseline even in neutral rallies. This is useful for Khachanov because he tends not to go so aggressive, but does hit every ball solid. That’s usually the reason he loses to top opposition (who don’t cough up errors), but here I think the serving is even and the baseline exchanges eventually go to Karen. Khachanov in 4-5. Cobolli is still a great player with a big serve and forehand, and his mobility is way ahead of Hanfmann’s so this can’t be one-way traffic.

Dimitrov vs Berrettini :

Dimitrov is 35 and Berrettini is 30. I don’t think I have ever encountered such old young people in my life, but when you watch tennis, everyone winds up seeming like a veteran. Dimitrov has already been through multiple eras of pro tennis, career ending injuries, and Berrettini can say the same. Now they’re sort of still here, and their grass-court experience is paying dividends. Their previous meetings were in 2019 so those can be discarded, but they did split wins.

This week Berrettini has defeated Wawrinka and Fils in 4, and Dimitrov beat Mensik in 4 and Sweeny in 3. There isn’t a lot to separate the two players right now. Dimitrov’s backhand is certainly better, and his serving should allow him to score on Berrettini who is sort of veering into servebot territory at this stage. I really was impressed that Dimitrov held on against Mensik, but Jakub had grassy troubles the whole match. Dimitrov’s slices bothered him, and he had trouble timing his shots with the errant and quick bounces. This is the reason why even though Dimitrov seems more versatile and steady in neutral rallies, I think Berrettini can win this. Berrettini is very comfortable with the bounces here. Sweeny had opportunities but lacked the power and offense to score on Dimitrov. Mensik was able to break a bunch of times but couldn’t hang onto his own serve. Berrettini plugs both gaps for me, so I think if they’re both healthy (this is a match that could easily see one player hit a physical wall) Berrettini wins in 4-5.

Bergs vs Fery :

Virtanen beat Shelton, and ended his turn. It’s always tough to watch the guy who upset you lose the next round, but it happens sometimes. Otto seemed to empty the gastank, but credit to Fery; he has been a steady performer in his chances on tour. This next matchup is tricky for both. Bergs is in great form, but is on a long run of tennis after the Eastbourne title. His general approach is to outlast his opponents, so if he gets fatigued as this thing goes, I have doubts. Tennis-wise, Bergs and Fery match up pretty close. Bergs is doing almost all the work with his forehand and his legs, and Fery is a bit more solid but tends to win with consistent and measured play. I think their styles match up in a way where neither player will be able to win easy points, with makes me want to stare at Bergs’ physical state with even more scrutiny. Fery has had two pretty light matches given Virtanen’s quick playstyle and Dzumhur’s crashouts, so this is likely to be close. Obviously hometown favorites see a lot of investment, but Fery is also only +110 for this which is very very generous considering his opponent just won a title.

For me, I thought Faria was playing incredibly well, and Bergs still managed to stop him in his tracks. His playstyle means Fery can compete even, but I think Bergs’ body of work recently is just a lot better. Bergs in 4.

Fritz vs Sonego :

Sonego needed some wins this year, and now he has them. I think he and Fritz have a somewhat similar build and style, but Fritz is way more steady and his backhand is an actual defensive tool where Sonego’s is an exciting wheel that you can spin and see what happens. Fritz has dominated this h2h and he’s coming off a finals run in his leadup event. This is a spot where I’d expect Sonego to apply a lot of pressure and hold serve a good chunk of the time, but where his unforced errors and backhand weakness eventually cost him against Fritz’s steady and sleepy tennis mode. Fritz in 4.

Tiafoe vs Bublik :

Interesting match here, probably the best one of the day. Bublik has had a strange tournament thus far, with a 5 set win against Kokkinakis then a straight set win against Jacquet where he had to make a late comeback in the third to close out. Tiafoe had a puzzle to solve the last round also against Choinski, and I’d have to actually speak to him to know what the plan was. He seemed content to just hit the ball around until Choinski ran out of gas, and while that worked, Jan looked really competitive at times and Tiafoe missed and looked hesitant on a handful of shots.

My interest in Tiafoe’s approach is because Bublik is capable of putting him away with control. Tiafoe needs to play a bit more fast-paced here and try to keep Bublik on the run. The one thing Bublik has struggled to do in his career is the work. He’s capable of it and turns in good effort, but the tendency to bail out of rallies or go big is there in a destructive way. Let’s not forget that he was one of the projected threats to Sinner last year. I wanted to predict this match but now I just wanna watch it. Bublik has a huge serve and deft dropshots. His groundstrokes are very beautiful and he’s a solid entertainer when he’s not being a solid tantrum thrower. On the other side of the net, Tiafoe has a cannon for a serve but a good kick serve for pace change. He has the speed and physical fitness that you need to beat top players, and a very effective forehand once the edge is off. Early in the match I think I like Bublik, but given Tiafoe’s title run and his re-dedication to training and health this season I think he will gradually pull away as this drags on. I don’t see a way for Tiafoe or Bublik to win this in straight sets given their respective offense and their respective leaks. Tiafoe can get a little too passive and problem solve as things go on, and Bublik can get frustrated and impatient, leading him to play too fast when he’s down in the scoreline. I think Bublik will win the first or second and then the match will begin in the 4th. Tiafoe in 5 is my best guess, but these two are both very capable of redlining for 3-4 hours on serve and changing this outcome.

Lehecka vs Munar :

The Lehecka loss to Baez sticks in my head as evidence that he can crash out of any match quickly, but he’s been playing well this week. Munar is as simple a matchup as you can ask for in the third round of Wimbledon, and it’s a question of Lehecka’s serving and percentages. Munar will make you play the extra ball, and the 33 unforced errors Lehecka made against Molcan will be a factor. That match actually was decent prep for Lehecka, since Molcan is a very good defender and arguably moves the ball better than Munar. This is a fake-test for Lehecka; if he can ply his craft consistently he just has a huge edge here on grass. Lehecka in 4.

Giron vs Zverev :

Zverev has quietly become my second pick to win this title. His serve looks really effective, and he’s not playing with any panic or anger so far. Royer was a very simple task, so this is a match more similar to Blockx in terms of outcome imo. The problem is Zverev is 4-0 against Giron, and their respective strengths and weaknesses are an issue. Giron’s backhand is weak, and Zverev’s is his best asset and the only knock on it is that he hits it cross-court too often. Cross-court is fine here, and I think the serving battle goes to Zverev also. I’d expect a handful of tiebreakers since Zverev isn’t super efficient on grass in rallies, but Zverev in 3-4.

Women’s Singles :

Krueger vs Snigur :

I’ll feel a little foolish if I get this one wrong, because Krueger faith can often make one feel this way. Ashlyn has all the signs of being an eventual top ten talent, but the errors can flow early in matches. If you want a guaranteed performer here, Snigur is the choice. She’s well suited to the surface with her flat shooting, and she played well both rounds so far. Krueger probably shouldn’t even still be in the tournament after squeaking by against Vekic, but the one thing that makes me think she can win is her power. Most of Snigur’s losses where she struggles are against big hitters. Krueger has the ability to really serve well at times, and she was clinical against Bolkdavze. A safe match and a bunch of serve practice really is a good situation for Krueger.

Snigur is better and more composed, but this is a difficult matchup. I’m really not sure who will rise to the occasion, but since Krueger is the exact type of player who gives her trouble. I think it’s more important to tell you I have no clue than to paint a fairy tale here. Snigur in 2 or Krueger in 3 are my best guesses. Either Krueger sprays errors, or she hits the court. If she hits the court her power will unravel Snigur because she hits the ball so flat, and if she sprays errors obviously Snigur’s accuracy and skill will make it quick.

Navarro vs Kostyuk :

These two met last year in Bad Homburg and Navarro won in two. I know it’s easy to do, but I think this is the outcome again. Kostyuk just does not look at her best on super fast surfaces. Her power and agility are her big weapons, and on grass everyone has the ability to hit winners and the movement is limited. Navarro is 4-0 against her and has had a pretty good run on grass this past month. She has a tendency to wind up in third sets, but this would be Kostyuk’s first win and on one of her worst surfaces so it’s very uphill. Navarro in 2.

Paolini vs Sakkari :

Sakkari leads this h2h 3-2, but oof was she rough in the last round. Rakhimova played well, but Sakkari just crumbles at times out there. This kind of folding under pressure really makes Paolini the ideal player to beat her here. Paolini is faster than Rakhimova and has a similar wall-esque approach to the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sakkari’s forehand is able to deal with Paolini’s moonballs a bit better than most, but I think her backhand breaks down here. Paolini came in playing poorly but she’s made improvements every round and what happened against Rakhimova will send Sakkari out early. I wouldn’t rule out her playing better here, but I don’t exactly expect it either. Paolini in 3.

Eala vs Swiatek :

Eala’s big 2025 included a breakout win against Swiatek in Miami, so she won’t be too nervous in this moment. Swiatek has dropped one set against a lefty here in Townsend, but I think Eala’s offense is a good bit smaller. Swiatek as the defending champion has to let her play with a big of confidence, so as long as she gets off to a good start I think she can win in two. Eala has been adept at outlasting players, but her serve isn’t that big so I expect Iga to gradually apply pressure and play most of this match on or inside the baseline. Swiatek in 2.

Anisimova vs Keys :

This is the Bublik Tiafoe of the women’s bracket. Both of these players have incredibly big offenses. Keys has a bigger serve, but she’s a bit less accurate with her groundstrokes. Anisimova has one of the most aggressive shot selections on tour, but her movement is a little bit slow at times. I don’t really think either player can defend too well here, but Keys right now is a little bit sharper and coming off the Eastbourne title. With Anisimova just finding her best tennis again and needing 3 against a resurgent Kenin, I think this physical task may be too big. I’d buy tickets if I could. Keys in 3. Anisimova always finds ways to break, but I think Keys is in better form right now tennis-wise and physically.

Cirstea vs Noskova :

Cirstea has done well in this matchup, and she was clinical against Birrell last round. Noskova has a good enough serve and sharp enough groundstrokes to score on Cirstea, but her level has varied a bit lately. 3 sets with Osorio is a less than stellar sign. Cirstea’s level didn’t drop at all last round, and despite some poor service games from Birrell Sorana looked very dominant and solid on defense. This should be a similar battle to the one above where both players’ offenses are good enough to score, and Cirstea is just a little bit more reliable here. Cirstea in 3.

Bouzkova vs Samsonova :

Honestly this is a day I would rather not try to call. Samsonova has won the last few meetings with Bouzkova in 3, but Bouzkova’s most recent win was a grass-court meeting where she won in straight sets. Marie is playing exceptionally well on grass right now, so I think she has a very small edge here. The problem is that her history with Samsonova likely means Liudmila is very familiar with her serve and shot selection, and if a big hitter knows where you’re going, it can spell a long day. At some point, Samsonova is going to be hitting the court and serving well and winning a lot of two-swing points, but I also think unforced errors in bunches are a mainstay in her game and she hasn’t shown the ability to just pause this because it’s a big event. Bouzkova’s defending and slices should eventually get her through. Bouzkova in 3.

Rybakina vs Mertens :

Mertens going three with Timofeeva doesn’t really make my optimistic about the upset here for the elven princess (voted democratically), and Rybakina is 7-1 in this matchup. With Rybakina finding some of her better tennis against McNally, this is likely another win for her side. McNally was able to break Rybakina and apply pressure, but she didn’t have the serve/offense to really put her away even if she had the lead in a game or set. Rybakina is likely to keep serving her way through this draw, and I think it’s actually better for her if Samsonova gets through because Bouzkova might actually take advantage of her errors in a more meaningful way than her previous opponents. Elyse is a great player and has every shot you could want, it just seems like she falls a little bit short when she plays the huge offenses on tour. Rybakina in 2.