2026 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round of 16 Writeup 🐢

Men’s Singles :

Sinner vs Mochizuki :

It all comes down to this. Yes, Sinner is taller. Sure, Sinner has more Grand Slam titles. Fine, he’s better at tennis. But is he cuter? Shintaro Mochizuki has been a DC favorite for a long time, and this week he has gone on a great run at Wimbledon. The win against Jodar is somewhat understandable after his straight set drubbing of Quinn, but it’s a higher profile name and it took a lot of grinding. Early on Jodar looked dominant in baseline rallies, but as things went Mochizuki got more and more clutch and ended up winning the next three sets. Jodar seemed to have a hip/groin issue at one point which impacted his movement, but all credit to Mochizuki for playing solid and keeping the pressure on as the match progressed. 

With this result Shintaro is now up to 114 in the live rankings which is likely just on the edge of getting direct entry into the US Open. Even if he’s on the outskirts, late in the season there are always withdrawals due to fatigue and injuries, and some people may be tempted by international events elsewhere. For example, August 5th is National Underwear Day, August 8 is Sneak Some Zucchini Onto Your Neighor’s Porch Day, and August 27 is Rock, Paper, Scissors day. One of those sounds like someone got caught zucchini-handed and played it off a little too successfully, but the point remains, people may be elsewhere and allow him to get into the main draw. Mochizuki is pretty good on hardcourt also so a good draw or two could see him keep moving up the rankings.

Sinner stumbled a little in round one, but has been solid since then. This is another relatively safe spot for him because Mochizuki’s pressure won’t work that well. Sinner is one of the best returners and his balance is excellent. He’s going to be able to punish Mochi for rushing the net, and he’s going to be able to break often. Sinner in 3. This draw is thinning out fast and Sinner is going to look like a big lock once people notice how vulnerable Djokovic actually is.

Hurkacz vs Struff :

I guess I have to beat Struff myself. Medvedev and Struff played a really interesting match. Medvedev was up a consolidated break in every single set and lost in straights. This is the peril I guess in playing possum on grass. He allowed Struff to spin the variance wheel, and Struff came out on top. It sets up a solid serving battle between Hurkacz and Struff, and another match where I have to write about Struff’s errors costing him. At this point Struff is playing at his best level. Beating Medvedev is very impressive, and it gives him at least a fighting chance against Hurkacz.

With two huge serves and Struff having massive power on his forehand, it is likely this match is decided in tiebreakers. As good as Struff’s serving is, I think Hurkacz’s delivery is more accurate and has fewer lapses. Hurkacz was down at 59% first serves in last round which is not great, but Struff was at 57. Hurkacz had better #s for 1st serve points won also. Medvedev might be a tougher out than Tommy Paul, but I was more impressed by Hurkacz’s play in that match. Tommy dished out his usual random games full of errors occasionally, but Hurkacz was really unplayable on serve and Struff had a lot of contended games against Med. Hurkacz has won the last few meetings here, but the one meeting on grass went to Struff so this is likely to wind up in a 4th or 5th. I think Hurkacz has the best grass-court game of all of Struff’s opponents so far, and he should win in 4-5.

Auger-Aliassime vs Davidovich Fokina :

Felix hasn’t dropped a set yet in this event, but he’s had a pretty simple draw thus far. Prizmic was probably his toughest opponent, and Dino honestly doesn’t play that much grass. Despite the easy draw, he’s looked solid and in the past he’s done very well on grass. It was the surface where he first started having big results on tour when he made the Stuttgart final in 2019, and now much has changed. His serve is very useful here, and his power pays dividends. With ADF coming off a title run in Mallorca and a good performance against Fuscovics, this should be close.

I still like Felix this match, and part of it was the way ADF beat Fucsovics. He always seemed a bit better, but the third set really looked like a labor for him. Marton made a number of impatient errors and struggled to win rallies, but Felix has a much heavier and more consistent forehand and his serve is light-years ahead. I think this is the match where Fokina hits the wall physically, but it will take a long time to get him there. The last grass meeting between these two was a straight set win for FAA, but it was at Boodles so it doesn’t count much (exhibition match). This will sound negative, but I feel like ADF has been operating at the 250/500 level and thriving, but this is going to require his best tennis at the end of a long run of solid tennis. FAA in 5. With Fokina serving well and hitting well off both wings I think Felix will cough up a set or two to his errors and timing issues on the backhand, but I think his serve is a very useful weapon when trying to close out a set.

Safiullin vs Djokovic :

RIP my inbox, but I’m suspicious that Djokovic might have trouble here. Djokovic is 3-0 against Roman Safiullin, and has never dropped a set. Safiullin’s lateral movement and shot selection generally aren’t good enough to defend against or score on Novak, and I’d add that his backhand is generally not consistent enough defensively to make Djokovic play with much variety. Novak can play dropshots when he wants to punish Roman’s deep court position, and he can isolate his backhand the rest of the time with decent success. Safiullin has a great serve and good power, but Djokovic is probably the best returner of all time.

So with all this in play, it’s hard to really point to a Safiullin win. The reason I lean towards this being very competitive is that Djokovic had a big letdown against Rinderknech late in the match. The first two sets were the usual Djokovic story. He wins sets by a break, and even though it seems competitive he’s never really redlining. The third thought was a bit spooky. Djokovic was broken several times, and in the 4th he really never leveled up. If anything, I felt he was a bit fortuitous to win, and that shows me the location (in my peanut brain) of his physical limit. Safiullin’s fitness was a bit question against Fonseca, and he eclipsed those worries. He won in straight sets and he ran Fonseca around the entire match. It was relentless offense and it’s exactly the type of pressure he needs to apply to tire Djokovic out.

At this point, I don’t think Djokovic is a threat to win this event. He has the ability to elevate his aggression, but in the past year it has seemed like he has a wall where he can no longer guarantee his shotmaking. Safiullin is at least as good offensively as Rinderknech (less accurate serve but stronger hitting from the baseline) so this is a big test for Djokovic. If it goes deep, I like Safiullin’s side. His quality right now and the surface allow him a little bit more of a chance to score on Novak, but this is mostly a warning sign about Djokovic’s stamina. There is a limit. If this gets to a fifth, I expect Safiullin to win. It is a huge test for anyone to navigate Djokovic’s quality, and Safiullin has gotten the business in the past so I’m really going out on a limb, but Safiullin in 5. Djokovic needs to be extremely efficient here and elevate his game early on so that his gas tank doesn’t become an issue.

De Minaur vs Cobolli :

Two matches in a row Cobolli has shown his ability to elevate in big moments matters a lot. Throughout the early parts of sets it seemed like Khachanov was the better player. Karen zipped him in the first and was threatening in the second, but one it got into a tiebreaker he just wasn’t in control. Cobolli has a big serve when he needs it, and his forehand can really generate pace when he has a moment. In between those moments, he just hits the court. There are timing issues on grass still, but those matter more over a long set than they do in a short tiebreaker. Cobolli can redline seemingly at will for these little mini-games and it not only works, it wears his opponent down mentally to work so hard and lose the set. As the match reached the middle, Khachanov’s forehand started to break down. He had trouble creating angles to Cobolli’s forehand when the ball was in the center of the court, and a number of shanks reversed the early roles and made Cobolli the steadier player.

It’s a good win for Cobolli, and now I will unceremoniously doubt him again. De Minaur’s game isn’t nearly as big as Khachanov, but his specialty is capitalizing on errors and making the ball slide on grass. That is the one thing that seems to still be giving Cobolli trouble. When he’s serving, he’s fine, but on defense he’s just not completely comfortable yet, particularly on the forehand side. I think ADM will be able to work his normal game here, and his movement will let him extend rallies in a way that Khachanov couldn’t. I think he’ll have to work much harder to score, but his forehand won’t break down like Karen’s did. If there’s one clear target here, it’s ADM’s backhand. This wing can break down a bit this season, and when a player has gone through some rough patches you can really instill doubt if you make it clear you’re targeting one wing. The good news for Alex is he can go to the slice here, and overall I think (for the second time) Cobolli is playing someone who’s likely to expose his one leak on grass (timing the low bounces). De Minaur in 5.

Dimitrov vs Fery :

All the info about this is located in Dimitrov’s camp right now. His recovery from a 5 set battle is the big question here, and for a 35 year old these are legit questions. Dimitrov and Berrettini was a super enjoyable match. They played well throughout and the one big issue that decided it for me was Berrettini’s backhand. He elected to use his two-hander as often as possible and this shot is just not reliable. Dimitrov was able to approach the net on mediocre shots to Berrettini’s backhand and hit over his one-hander confidently without really having to worry about creating depth. The Berrettini period of success (sets 3 and 4) was mostly about him finally getting some forehands and Dimitrov not really having the oomph to run those down. I was honestly a bit surprised Dimitrov turned it around in the third, but breaks were hard to come by in this match (only 7 combined) so getting an early one really worked out for Dimitrov.

Arthur Fery is a hard one to predict. I thought the price of +110 for him was pretty low, and while I was willing to chalk it up to hometown investment, it still didn’t make a lot of sense unless Bergs was going to get tired. After they split sets, I thought maybe Bergs would struggle, but he broke twice in the next set to win 6-2. It seemed over as he broke early in the 4th, but somehow Fery found a late break and then won a tiebreaker. It seemed over against in the 5th with Fery down 4-1, but he managed to get back into the match and win a 10 point tiebreaker. The tiebreaker was the best tennis Fery played in the entire match, and also the first time that Bergs really missed multiple rally balls, so it was a puzzling win. Fery has really smooth control and seems to be able to infuse pace on the ball, but his usual approach seems to be a bit softer. He plays a lot of slices and can redirect his backhand down the line well but mostly just hits it cross. His serve isn’t a huge weapon, but it’s there when he needs it. Bergs basically dominated the match with his forehand and defense, but ran out of both when he needed them to close out.

If Dimitrov is healthy, he should win this match. Fery will be a quality opponent and Arthur can deal with what Grigor has to offer, but I think there is a big disparity in serving ability. Dimitrov being able to turn things up in the 5th also makes me optimistic that he’s a bit healthier than I think. Fery scored a bunch on Bergs with slices, and I think that will happen to Dimitrov less since he’s very comfortable with that aspect of grass-court tennis. Dimitrov in 4.

Bublik vs Fritz :

This is a rematch of a grass match in Stuttgart a few weeks ago where Fritz won 4,4. Bublik tends to play more at the majors, but since that was a semifinal, I’m going to go ahead and say he was going all out. This is a strangely tricky match for Bublik to play right now. The last round against Tiafoe was a grind of the variety that Bublik doesn’t normally make. He had to play 5 sets of patient tennis, and his path to victory did not include the usual ones. His dropshots were almost completely ineffective, and his first serve wasn’t always there in big service games. Bublik won this by defending his second serve well, and by keeping his groundstrokes in the court. When they traded backhands, it was clear that whoever missed first would lose the match, and Tiafoe’s broke down first (though infrequently and only fully in the 5th set). The long grind brought up worries about Bublik’s attention span, patience, and physical state, but he was the fitter player in the 5th. This is a match that really could have gone either way as well as both played, but for Bublik to be able to hang in emotionally (during things like 13-11 tiebreaks) and keep fighting after losing the 4th was very solid.

This next match is an issue for me because Fritz is basically the same equation. He plays very solid like Tiafoe, serves big, and doesn’t really give too much away. Fritz will always lose close matches to the absolute top tier of the tour, but his steady backhand and reliable serve/forehand mean that you have to do a lot to beat him. I wonder if Bublik is going to be able to navigate two long matches like this in a row. He has the tennis, but I think Fritz serves a bit better than Tiafoe right now because Francis was at the end of a very long stretch of tennis. The one thing that is back on the menu are the dropshots. Fritz being taller and a bit slender means he won’t get to net as easily as Tiafoe did, so I think Bublik will once again be able to get to tiebreakers. I just don’t think Fritz’s backhand breaks down first here. These two are 4-5, but Fritz has won 4 of the last 5. Very possible Bublik goes back to back, but I think he’s going to have to redline and get a bit lucky once again, and the emotional letoff after the Tiafoe match might have him a bit flatter than Fritz who had a long but relatively safe match against Sonego. Sonego did well and the scoreline was tight, but it was more a situation of Fritz saying “pls just let me get this done” rather than Bublik/Tiafoe which was more a massively long tug of war. Fritz in 5.

Lehecka vs Zverev :

The last meeting between these two was a 3 setter on grass, but it was the Hurlingham exhibition. They both come in serving great and hitting heavy groundstrokes, so this is another match that goes to tiebreaks. I like Zverev’s chances of making the finals here given how well he’s serving, but he’s not efficient on defense in the rally on grass, so a player in form like Lehecka can be a healthy challenge. Lehecka and Zverev have split wins on hardcourt (although these were in ’23 and ’22) so it’s not out of the question that Lehecka wins. My problem with that prediction is the trouble he tends to have when he plays someone who’s defending well or hitting big. Lehecka takes big swings and has huge power, but the length can go awry in those tough situations. Zverev is pretty easily read at times, but I think it will be tough for Lehecka to hit through him without unforced errors, and rally comfort is something you can’t always guarantee when Zverev is serving so well.

Like most people, I’m okay watching Zverev lose. He’s a great player, but he makes a good villain. Lehecka is a decent candidate to pressure him and win sets if he gets a lead, but I still think Zverev will be a little too stable for him in a long match. Zverev in 4-5.

Women’s Singles :

Sabalenka vs Osaka :

This is the first match I think Sabalenka will drop a set in and similar to the Djokovic worries, it makes no sense given the history. Sabalenka has beaten Osaka in their last 5 meetings, and 3 of them were this year. This is their first meeting on grass, and Sabalenka has been marching through this draw in decent fashion. I would argue also that Sabalenka has played the harder lineup in Kostovic (powerful), Kessler, and Ostapenko. Osaka has won in straight sets thus far, but Jacquemot, Gasanova, and Kasatkina are at a bit of a disadvantage against Osaka’s power and serving. So why the set? Sabalenka has never won a grass-court title, and this means it’s not guaranteed that she can defend. Ostapenko’s serve disappeared on her, but they had a fairly competitive 6-4, 6-4 match.

Osaka’s serving has always been world class, and she’s been back on tour post-maternity leave long enough that she’s playing decent tennis again. She’s coming off a finals run in Bad Homburg (where she retired), and she’ll be hungry for this result after a few losses against Aryna. Osaka won 81% of her first serves last round and served 61% of her first serves in. It’s enough to get her deep in at least one set, and given the tiebreaker Kessler got to I think Sabalenka is unlikely to get through this comfortably. Osaka also took a set against Sabalenka on clay (her worst surface) so even though that was Madrid, I think it’s a very possible thing. Sabalenka has also turned in decent performances this year followed by a loss against a powerful offense (Shnaider, Cirstea, Baptiste), so she is clearly having a little bit of trouble guaranteeing her game when pressured.

What happens in a third actually could be either thing. The fact that Sabalenka has dropped a few third sets recently means she can get rattled, and watching her play when she’s off or in trouble is very tense because the errors can flow and so can the reactions. Aryna also can drop her effort a bit at times when things go bad. Say what you will about Osaka’s little Nadal-foot drag/mental reset in the corner routine, but I think she’s a little bit more likely to be calm and motivated in a third here. This is a match where Sabalenka winning in 2 would really make me think she’s going to win this event, and that’s gonna be tricky because of how stacked the top of the draw is. The top has Sabalenka, Osaka, Muchova, Krejcikova, Pegula, Jovic, Bencic, and Gauff. That is a medley of matches where anyone can win or lose (maybe not Jovic but she’d have a decent chance of coming through the bottom of the draw). I guess Sabalenka in 3 is my read here, but I am very wary of Osaka winning this.

Muchova vs Krejcikova :

Muchova came dangerously close to losing the second to Sawangkaew, and she looked a little cooked (heat-wise). That’s something to watch out for as she goes, and coming off a title run in Bad Homburg and with a bunch of withdrawals in her history, it gets a little more concerning. For now, let’s pretend she’s fine. Krejcikova has been battling through the draw in impressive fashion. She considered retiring from singles a few seasons ago because of her mobility issues, but those aren’t always exploitable. Sure, sometimes she gets exposed, but in big moments her tennis skill is so solid and her power is so useful that she can randomly win big titles. The match against Bartunkova was about what I expected. Bartunkova started off on fire and hit some clean winners, but her backhand broke down and Krejcikova was able to win in straights via Bartunkova’s 35 unforced errors.

This next match is interesting because Muchova doesn’t really make so many mistakes, but she also doesn’t play too aggressive at times. I think her slices and conservative play might allow Krejcikova to outhit her in stretches of this match, but it still might be the right approach since Barbora can send in unforced errors of her own (29 last match). You don’t want to give her complete control like Andreeva did, but you do want to make her play. For me, Muchova’s forehand is the decider in this match. She’s able to line it up with time and apply a lot of pace to the ball, and that’s necessary to score on Krejcikova. If Muchova doesn’t have issues with the heat, I think she can just navigate the onslaught of Krejcikova, but it will take a lot of defending and her own serve can’t break down. Second serves are not fun to hit to Krejcikova because she tends to just drive the ball deep and run you around from there. The backhand exchanges also favor Krejcikova, so Muchova will want to go to the slice a lot just to test her footwork and not give her too much rhythm. Muchova in 3. Krejcikova is too tough to shut out and Muchova tends not to play a whole two sets in a row well, but Muchova can defend a bit better and Krejcikova has had very clear advantages in ball-striking in neutral rallies in her matches so far.

Pegula vs Jovic :

Pegula is 2-0 so far against Jovic, and this should be a close third. Jovic’s struggles on tour have come against players who hit a bit harder, and Pegula’s flat groundstrokes pack a good punch. One of the main advantages Jovic had against Alexandrova was being able to send the ball wide and score since Alexandrova isn’t the best mover on grass, and that’s going to be missing here. I do actually like Jovic to win a set here since she has picked up the surface so quickly, but it feels like Jovic’s defense on grass is not as automatic as it is on hardcourt, and Pegula has a lot more experience on the surface. This should feature a bunch of duece games because they match up very similarly, but there were a number of points that could have taken the Alexandrova match in her favor late, so I think Pegula’s consistency will close out where Alexandrova couldn’t. Even as I type that I’m aware of Pegula’s random losses, but I think this one wouldn’t be random, and she’s just a little stronger physically right now than Jovic. Pegula in 3.

Bencic vs Gauff :

Bencic is pretty much always priced to beat Gauff, and usually doesn’t. Gauff has won their last three meetings, and those were all matches where Bencic was playing well. This one is no different, Belinda comes in playing very solid and has a chance. Gauff also has dropped sets to two lower tier opponents in Liu and Sierra, so there should be some extra belief. The grass makes Gauff’s defense a little bit less prominent. Bencic and Kalinskaya was played at a pretty high level, and so I’m closing my eyes and picking Bencic here. They usually combine to put on some incredibly close rallies and Gauff’s big edge is being able to create more angle on the backhand exchanges when she’s in trouble, but on grass I think Bencic’s serve will fare better, and she’s been serving above 60% first serves in the whole tournament so she might be just a bit more reliable on serve (Gauff’s was 61 against Liu and dipped to 54 against Sierra). Bencic in 3. I think this is a matchup problem on other surfaces because of the close but backhand-heavy exchanges that Gauff does better in, but on grass I think a lot of this is removed so its 50/50.

Krueger vs Kostyuk :

Okay. Navarro has been beating Kostyuk for a while and played her on her best surface, and Kostyuk won. Any time a top player elevates their game and wins, that’s good for the tournament so I’m happy to be wrong. This is oddly a spot where Kostyuk will need to elevate again, because these two met early last year and Kostyuk lost. Krueger is a tough player to evaluate because her normal game can lose to anyone, but peak Krueger looks unplayable at times. Grass makes that even trickier, and she left Snigur on 3,2 last round so it’s safe to say she’s playing her best as of the Vekic match.

Kostyuk should be able to win this duel, but I think it will take a lot to rattle Krueger here. Her having won their previous meeting and in three means that the scoreline can be anywhere and she’ll still have a bit of belief. Krueger also served 64% first serves in and won 84% of those, so the recipe here for Kostyuk is patience. She’ll need to keep her own first serve going, and make sure to play behind Krueger often as changing direction is not her strong suit. If she can keep Krueger moving, I think she wins in 2. Krueger in the second set is always a threat because a little fatigue makes her swing slower and plant harder (which increases her percentages), but Kostyuk is likely to be able to take advantage of errors here. The Adelaide match also saw Kostyuk state in press that she was playing through a bit of an injury. Kostyuk in 2-3.

Paolini vs Eala :

I’m not entirely sure what to do here. I watched Eala beat Swiatek, and I watched Paolini beat Sakkari, and they both had help. Eala played excellent against Iga. She defended well, she kept the ball in the court, and she spread the court well. It was excellent stuff, but Swiatek really gave her errors that she maybe didn’t have to. Swiatek seems unwilling to back off her shot selection. When the ball is in tough spots, or when her opponent is in trouble, she still goes huge. The result is Shapovalov style let-offs on big points. I know what she’s capable of, but hitting sharp angles or booming forehands when the ball is deep on the baseline just isn’t a reliable strategy. If you could do that, you’d already be doing that. It seems like some moonballs and slices are missing from Swiatek’s arsenal, and it’s a puzzle because she’s certainly fit enough to defend. Maybe these things won’t get her through against Sabalenka, but they would keep Eala at bay.

Paolini got a similar amount of help from Sakkari. The h2h scared me a bit, but Sakkari brought the same Rakhimova problems in. It is a problem for Sakkari to figure out with her team (hire me), but it is also a problem for me making a prediction. Paolini and Eala are likely to play a number of very long rallies, and neither player will be able to score easily. They have wildly different games, but a similar approach. Both move their opponent, both avoid unforced errors at the expense of their own pace, and both take a lot off their first serve in order to keep the % high. Their first meeting was earlier this year on hard in Dubai, and Eala won that 1,6. In that match, Paolini was the favorite. Here, the situation has flipped. Based off the caliber of their wins, Eala is the pick. Her losses though against Mertens and Jovic make me think that she’s not automatic against baseliners even if she is a very high quality player.

One thing that has helped Eala a bit so far is her crowd support. The Eala crowd screams before the point is over regularly, which is distracting just by nature of not being the norm. She’s also left-handed which is always a unique challenge. I actually think Paolini was not playing well at all in the first half of the season, so I expect her to fare way better this time. I’m expecting a third set here because both player are unlikely to fold and both come in defending well. I know Eala is playing with quality, but I just don’t think Paolini is going to give her the 44 unforced errors that Swiatek did. Paolini in 3.

Keys vs Noskova :

Someone asked me “Can Noskova win Wimbledon?” and I said “no”. Then I went and looked at the draw, and came back with “maybe”. The bottom of the draw here has opened up massively here with Mertens beating Rybakina and Eala beating Swiatek, and Krueger/Kostyuk/Paolini/Eala/Keys/Noskova/Bouzkova/Mertens honestly has one very clear favorite (Keys) and Noskova is +120 to beat her. These two have never played, and both have relatively unplayable offense when they’re on. Noskova has also just outlasted Cirstea who was playing extremely well through the first half of their match. Linda is no stranger to three set comebacks, so even if Keys wins the first set, there’s a chance.

Neither of these two players is the best defensively, but I think Noskova will have a particularly tough time dealing with Keys’ shotmaking. Noskova likes to return aggressively and Keys’ preferred second is a big kick serve. This can be tough to time. Keys also has just come through this exact type of puzzle in playing Anisimova, who plays a similar aggressive style and likely serves a bit better. Keys in 2-3. I think Madison is the favorite to come through this bottom bracket and this might be her biggest offensive competitor.

Mertens vs Bouzkova :

Mertens and Bouzkova is a good matchup. Both have just outlasted huge offensive tests, and this is not really the story of their career. Bouzkova has been on fire on grass, and her defending was enough to beat Samsonova. I think this next round is much tougher, because the 52 unforced errors Samsonova dished out are not going to be donated by Mertens. Elyse has the defensive skill to match Bouzkova in the rally, and she beat her 2,2 earlier this season on hardcourt. We can slightly ignore that result since Bouzkova basically slumped the entire season until grass, but it still says that Mertens doesn’t have to redline to play this match, and that means long rallies. With Bouzkova playing her best, I’d also estimate that Mertens won’t be able to find easy points.

Rybakina was my pick to drag through the bottom, but she made a lot of errors off Mertens slices. She seems just not herself this season, and grass was probably the best chance for her given how hot the North American swing is going to be. I am a Mertens fan, so I may be slightly biased, but I see her as having more variety in her game and a similar level of ballstriking to Bouzkova. I think she’s also dealt with baseliners well recently with wins over Siegemund and Eala. Edge goes to Mertens in my brain in a very close 3, but it feels like ignoring Bouzkova’s title run and comfort on grass is dangerous. Me no care though. Me Mertens.