2025 Roland Garros Women's Singles - Round One

Sabalenka vs Rakhimova :

This is the first Roland Garros in recent history that Sabalenka is the favorite for, and it’s well deserved. Aryna has completely changed the story surrounding her game, and random crashouts and unforced errors are a rare sight these days. She lost to Qinwen Zheng in Rome, but Zheng was playing her absolute best tennis, and she ran very well on break points. It was a match where Sabalenka probably should have wound up in a deciding set, but having some time off before a major isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Sabalenka opens up her title hunt against Rakhimova, who has worked her way back on tour but is not much of a threat here. Rakhimova seems like a veteran despite being only 23, but her struggles to hold serve have been well documented lately. Lack of a big first serve can be quite costly against Sabalenka, and she should win this fairly quickly. Sabalenka in 2.

Stefanini vs Teichmann :

Stefanini had a great run in qualifying, and wins against Sasnovich and Erjavec are really impressive with their current level. She’ll have another winnable match here against Teichmann, who is having a solid 2025 and finds herself back inside the top 100 for the first time in a few seasons. Teichmann’s recent losses make her a bit vulnerable here, and Stefanini’s strength is solid hitting from the baseline which is essential against Teichmann. Jill tends to extend rallies and use height on her forehand to wear opponents down. Stefanini is one of the few two-handed forehands you’ll see, but it allows her to really lean into shots on both wings. She’s in slightly sharper form right now, and given Rakhimova’s win against Teichmann, Stefanini can get the job done too. Stefanini in 2.

Collins vs Burrage :

Collins has added her name to the growing list of players who’ve snagged Swiatek recently, and she continued that good form in Strasbourg. She has a safe opener her against Burrage, who is only just making her way back onto the tour and is not really dangerous enough on clay to upset Collins. Collins in 2.

Danilovic vs Fernandez :

When two leftys play, I tend to go with the bigger hitter. Here, that equation isn’t close. Danilovic hits the ball harder and faster off both wings than Fernandez, and she’s having her best season ever. She excels on clay, and Fernandez is struggling a bit lately. She has the ability to compete with the best on tour, but she takes the ball very early and that’s tough to do on clay where the bounces can be rough. In a first round the court will be less beaten up, but I still think Danilovic’s offense is more reliable and she has just enough pace on the ball to actually rush Fernandez into errors. Danilovic in 3.

Tauson vs Linette :

Tough draw for Linette. She’s an excellent player with a solid serve and a great ability to trade on the run. Her main trouble on tour is against the biggest hitters because she doesn’t have a heavy weight of shot, and Tauson is crushing the ball right now. Linette’s speed and variety should benefit from Tauson’s impatience and slightly slow mobility, but Tauson’s serving is really strong and the moment she gets a full swing she’s in control of the point for the rest of the point. This should be really high quality, but I expect Tauson to push through. Tauson in 3.

Rus vs Osorio :

Osorio has a habit of dropping sets and giving up deficits, but her baselining is strong and her speed around the court makes it tough to hit through her. Rus has huge power in her forehand, but I don’t think she’ll be able to wear Osorio down and Camila’s backhand being sold negates some of the benefit Rus gets from being lefty. Osorio in 2.

Kvitova vs Golubic :

Kvitova has looked a bit slow in her comeback from maternity leave, but her ballstriking is still useful. It sets up an interesting match against Golubic. Viktorija has an excellent one-handed backhand, a variety of defensive shots to stay out of trouble, and absolutely no serve. Anytime she has control of a rally Kvitova will be cooked, but I think Petra will be able to break Golubic readily. It’s a question of who can put together a good service game first, and I think that really is even at this point. Kvitova is 1-4 in her last matches, and Golubic is around the same. It’s a good draw for both, and I’d like Kvitova here but she withdrew from her last match against Jabeur. Tricky times. Kvitova in 3.

Stojanovic vs Anisimova :

Stojanovic did a great job in qualifying, winning all three matches in deciding sets. the last win against Lepchenko is especially good, as Varvara is having a great season. Anisimova retired from her last match, but prior to that she was playing scary well in the Paris 125k. If she’s healthy, she will beat Stojanovic fairly easily. If she’s compromised, then Stojanovic will have a chance to make the second round of a major and face Golubic/Kvitova. Those are winnable matches so this is an exciting spot for either. Since she’s playing, and since she doesn’t really need the $ or the ranking points, I’m going to assume Anisimova is okay. Anisimova in 2.

Shnaider vs Sobolieva :

Sobolieva pulled off a huge upset in the finals of qualifying, upending Jones. She had a solid win against Belgraver also in the semifinals, as Belgraver has announced herself as a tremendous player in recent weeks (with wins against Jacquemot, Sun, and Sierra). It’s likely the end of the road since Shnaider is playing well, but it’s a great result for Sobolieva. Shnaider just went to 3 with eventual Rome champion Paolini, and her level of offense makes her a threat to anyone in this draw. Shnaider in 2.

Yastremska vs Aiava :

Destanee Aiava has really turned her career around in the last season or so, but she hasn’t been active and her best game is not clay. Yastremska should win this in 2.

Romero Gormaz vs Rakotamanga :

This should be a great match. Romero Gormaz is the lesser known of the two right now, but she’s an excellent lefty from Spain with great control of the ball. She doesn’t seem to be over-exerting, but when she has time she really leans into her shots and gets the ball to dip when it bounces. Leyre uses the dropshot well, and despite being mostly off tour, she’s been winning a ton of matches in the past year. She was excellent in qualifying, and she’s capable of playing the style of tennis that Rakotamanga employs. Rakotamanga is another lefty player in the lane of Fernandez and Eala who rallies well and uses her pace and consistency to wear down opponents. I don’t see a quick path to the finish line for either of these players, and since both are relatively new on tour, it’ll it’ll be interesting to see how they navigate this match. I think Rakotomanga is a bit stronger at this point, but Gormaz seems to win in streaks. I’d be lying if I could point to a clear difference between the two players, and both have wins and losses in the past few months around the same level. Since she’ll have the crowd support, I think Rakotomanga in 3 is the most likely outcome.

Sherif vs Samsonova :

Sherif is turning her season around in the usual way, with hard-fought claycourt wins. She’s gotten a rough draw here, as Samsonova has just made the finals (at least) of Strasbourg and dismissed Collins along the way. The Collins win feels significant to me because she has a level of consistent ballstriking and rallying similar to Sherif (although much more offensive). If Samsonova is in form, and it seems she is, this is a very winnable match. Samsonova in 2.

Stearns vs Lys :

Eva Lys is having a fine season, but Stearns just really announced herself as a top tier player in Rome. She beat Kalinskaya, Keys, Osaka, and Svitolina, before falling to Paolini in a match where she very easily could have won the first set. That lineup is sometimes good enough to get you into the finals of a major, and Rome and RG are a similar court-speed, so I expect Stearns to be good here. Lys can rally well, but she tends to have stamina issues and Stearns is always looking to drag things out when she gets in trouble. Stearns’ forehand is probably the biggest shot on the court, so I like her in 2.

Mboko vs Sun :

Mboko might be on her last round of qualifying here. She’s not automatic, but she has really shown the ability to win matches. Her defense is exhausting and she hits the ball solid when she has control. Since she’s a new face on tour, most players don’t really have the route past her solved either. Sun has the offense to do the job, but hasn’t really played well this year. I don’t think she moves well enough to beat Mboko, even if she can win a set with good serve/forehand combos. Mboko in 2-3.

Eala vs Arango :

Should be some long rallies in this and some exciting shifts in momentum. Eala announced herself in Miami this year with wins against Ostapenko, Keys, and Swiatek. She’s still 50/50 in a Challenger event but her consistency and defense have proven quite effective and on tour she seems to step up her focus. I don’t expect her to shut anyone out in the foreseeable future, but it’ll be similarly difficult for players to hit through her on slow clay. Arango is a great baseliner but I think her lack of power will cost her here. Eala in 2.

Pavlyuchenkova vs Zheng :

Pavs has started to play some good tennis again, but Zheng came pretty close to winning Rome (served for the match against Gauff in the semis and took out the world #1 Sabalenka) and should be motivated here. They have similar offensive capabilities, but Zheng moves much better which should get her by here. She made some stubborn errors in her last loss, but part of that was due to Gauff’s defensive presence. Zheng in 2.

Paolini vs Yuan :

Yuan is a fine player, but Paolini is one of the players who could win this event without anyone being wildly surprised. Her energy level is amazing, and she generates a bunch of power on her forehand which lets her finish off rallies once her opponent is fatigued. Paolini in 2.

Tomljanovic vs Joint :

This match is a puzzle. They just played last week and Tomljanovic had to retire down a set, so there’s not a lot of reason to expect her to be 100% here. Joint is better defensively, and Tomljanovic’s power is really only effective when she’s at her best. Joint in 2-3.

Korpatsch vs Cirstea :

Nice contrast in styles here. Korpatsch is a really tricky defender who uses moonballs and slices and anything else to try to extend rallies. At times it feels like she keeps her opponent in the point just to wear them down a bit longer. On the other side of the net we have Sorana Cirstea, whose power and commitment to offense have seen her beat some of the best players on tour. It’s a match that is purely about Cirstea’s percentages, but in an early round I dont think fatigue will play a part. Cirstea in 3.

Potapova vs Noskova :

Noskova is comfortable on clay, but her offensive shot selection and her flat forehand don’t seem ideal for the surface. She’s gone win-loss-win-loss for most of the clay season, and Potapova actually made the fourth round here last year and is playing decent. Her best result was in Madrid, but Potapova has been a bit more active as a result of winning extra matches, so she’s likely to have a bit more belief. Potapova in 3.

Vekic vs Blinkova :

Blinkova seems a bit past her prime, but I checked the bookmakers lines for this match and she’s projected to win. Ranked ~40 spots lower, in a slump, and with Vekic posting a few high profile wins recently, you’d expect Vekic to be around -200 or more, but she’s -125. Alarm bells should be ringing, but it doesn’t make sense to me. Blinkova has had a rough time holding serve, and she hits heavy but has been error prone for a few weeks now. Vekic lost first round to Andreescu in an uninspiring performance, but Andreescy was playing really well. I’m not really seeing how Blinkova can beat Vekic quick enough to avoid Donna finding her form. Vekic in 2.

Garcia vs Pera :

Garcia recently announced that she’s retiring, and so I thank her (Hi Caro!) for providing us with a career full of exciting tennis, thrilling shotmaking, and balls sent into the backstop on a fly. Garcia has been one of the most aggressive returners in tennis, and whether she’s on or off you will be entertained. This is a tough one to call. Garcia hasn’t played since Miami, but she did beat Pera on the slow hardcourts of Indian Wells earlier this year. I like her chances at home, but it’s a bit ridiculous to expect her to show up and beat an active player after taking two months off. Pera in 3. I believe Garcia can win a few rounds in this draw, but Pera is at her best on clay so this isn’t simple.

Siegemund vs Bondar :

There are an uncommon number of injured and inactive players competing in this version of Roland Garros. Siegemund withdrew from her last match against Ostapenko. I like her style of tennis against Bondar, because she plays with tenacity and wins by moving her opponent and earning errors. Tennis analysis often sounds reductive, but Bondar generally struggles with unforced errors so this will be close. Bondar has been extremely active, getting 10 matches in this month already. The problem is those matches are mostly against lower tier opposition, but the good news is she won most of them, including an ITF100 title in Wiesbaden. Healthy Siegemund can take this, but if she’s not 100% there’s no reason to really choose her outright. Bondar in 3. I don’t condone gambling, but if you’re doing that try to avoid matches following injury withdrawals. Many players will exit partially because they’re losing and don’t feel 100%, so it’s less that they can’t compete and more that they know they’re cooked for that day. Players will also check out of smaller events to ensure they are healthy for a major, or to avoid making something worse that they may be able to compete fine with. It’s just a guessing game that you don’t want to play, and with the ability to watch entire first rounds, tennis predictions are an open book exam.

Sonmez vs Svitolina :

Sonmez is a great player, but I think she’s in a slightly lower weight class than Svitolina. Elina is having a tremendously resurgent season and has been really difficult to beat on clay so far. Sonmez has a good backhand and moves the ball well, but I don’t think she serves big enough to keep points short, and Svitolina is physically stronger at this time. Svitolina in 2-3.

Rybakina vs Riera :

Rybakina is in the finals of Strasbourg and playing some solid tennis, so this just moves this beyond the realm of winnable for Riera. Riera looked good in qualifying, but I think she lacks the type of pace necessary to force Rybakina into errors. Rybakina in 2.

Jovic vs Zarazua :

This is an interesting one. Jovic is a player with a lot of hype surrounding her game and her game and shot selection look eerily similar to a lot of the past American stars. She has big groundstrokes and plays fairly aggressive. When she gets a full swing, she usually controls the rally from there. With all great junior standouts, there is a middling period though. She’s pulled off some excellent wins, but she’s still susceptible to some letdowns against ITF level competition. Don’t get me wrong, the top 3-400 players are all capable for the most part of beating each other on a given day, but in a match like this where Jovic possesses a more well rounded game, it still isn’t automatic that she’ll win. Zarazua has one of the steadiest backhands on tour, and wins with her legs. She covers the court well, and her ability to put returns in play is her main attribute, because her first serve is not strong at all. I would expect a large number of breaks in this, and if it goes to 3 sets Zarazua should have an edge on stamina. Jovic recently beat Pigossi which is right around the level of this match, but Zarazua actually defeated her on hardcourt last season 4,2 so the slower clay might give her a slight edge. This is a really close one, but I’m leaning towards Zarazua in 3.

Dolehide vs Minnen :

Dolehide is one of the hardest players for me to watch. She plays great highlight tennis but the moment there’s pressure on her serve it disappears, and she plays way too aggressive on big points and also seems to lose her technique on them. It just feels like cumulative trauma (in a minor way) from close losses and lost service games at the end of matches make her rush through the big moments. It’s not easy to generate such big power and no one can win all the time, but I think Dolehide would benefit from some Nadal-esque rituals before she serves. Just slow down so that the points feel more compartmentalized and each one is a new opportunity. This is a unique spot since Minnen and Dolehide are both huge servers with heavy forehands. I think Minnen is a little more consistent from the baseline, but Dolehide is more active and winning higher quality matches. This week it just feels like the players on tour are all rounding into good form, but also some are getting a bit burnt out. They’re nearing the midway point of the season and the clay swing is a long grind. Given their offenses and percentage issues, I would expect them to trade sets. Minnen in 3. Dolehide is playing better but she benefits from having control of the rallies and the ball a bit higher, and Minnen tends to hit flat with lower net clearance. She has a more reliable delivery on serve too. It’s Dolehide’s to lose but she seems prone to these moments.

Kudermetova vs Ostapenko :

Really the right test for Ostapenko. She can crash out to errors and she seems to deny reality when she has a lower ranked opponent who plays well. Kudermetova fits that bill nicely. She’s a defensive baseliner but she has a decent first serve as far as location, so Ostapenko could have a long day here. Jelena is a powerful and vengeful lil nugget, who denies computer supremacy and crushes forehands that are hit so flat they seem to defy physics when they land in. I’m excited to see her navigate this one, but I think it may take some time for her to find her best gear. Ostapenko in 3.

Kostyuk vs Bejlek :

Sara Bejlek seems to have hit a growth spurt in the past season and that makes her even more dangerous. She’s been playing great in qualifier draws for what feels like 3 seasons now, and being a lefty makes me optimistic that when she gets her adult strength she’ll be even better. Her baseline game is excellent, but Kostyuk is in great form this season. She’s hitting her forehand down the line really well on the run, which will be a problem for Bejlek. This should be very close, but Kostyuk has dug into enough difficult matches that I don’t think a rough patch here (in which Bejlek’s groundstrokes pay dividends) will make her lose confidence or drop her level. Kostyuk in 2 close sets.

Cristian vs Birrell :

Birrell is the bigger hitter but Cristian is the better play on clay. It’ll be a battle of big hitting here, and I think Cristian is just a little better on serve and her movement on clay is better, which will cause Birrell to make a handful of neutral rally errors. Cristian in 3.

Raducanu vs Wang Xinyu :

Raducanu has played really well in the past month and I don’t want to jinx it by predicting her to win here, but I have to? Wang has maybe the most enjoyable forehand to watch in the WTA right now. She legitimately crushes winners with a pace and enthusiasm that makes me think she’s going to win titles, but she also sends the ball flying long for entire sets. Here I think she has a punchers chance because Raducanu can get a little tight, but Raducanu’s backhand is much more solid so I think she’ll squeak by in 2-3.

Sramkova vs Swiatek :

Swiatek became so dominant on clay that Roland Garros actually became boring for a few seasons. Now, like a true champion, she has created intrigue that makes it exciting again. A few losses, a few crashout moments, and suddenly Swiatek seems vulnerable. I like it, although I do think it’s more enjoyable to see her playing well. Swiatek’s struggles to find an effective first serve are well documented. I actually think she’s a baller in the line of Andreescu or Bencic, someone who really is comfortable competing and doesn’t need a ton of technical coaching, so the long prep before a serve I don’t think really does much for her. She likes to play fast, and has great body control, so I think she should just step up and rip it.

The opposite approach is what I think would help her during the rally. She seems to just go bigger and more aggressive when she’s losing, and maybe it’s good to wrest control of a match back, but when your opponent is actually playing well you just help them by getting impatient. Swiatek’s court coverage is amazing and she’s in great shape. I think if she adopted a Thiem-like approach to rallies it would really work.

Thiem had a great one-hander, but couldn’t hit it for an entire match. For one thing, you play your opponent into form showing them the same pace all the time. For another, all the misses start to give them hope. Anyway, Thiem adopted a slice-heavy approach. He made it difficult to create, and he challenged them to supply their own offense. If they left the ball short, or tried to open up an angle, he’d take a full swing and punish them. I really think Swiatek’s backhand is a nice short from inside the baseline, but from the baseline or further back she should just be hitting moonballs and topspin. Someone like Sabalenka might crush one or two of those, but she’s not going to hit a whole match full of winners. The same is really true of Swiatek’s forehand. People compared Iga’s forehand to Nadal, and it wasn’t because of the pace, it was because of the technique and her ability to get maximum RPMs on it. 

I don’t think it’s the end of the world because she lost a few matches, and her hardcourt progress has actually been postiive, but she should go back to the basic patterns that made her so good. Grind away, wear people down, and then you can go for big angles and rip backhands down the line. As far as the serve, I don’t see why she needs to do anything but hit a good kick serve from the ad side, and body serves fro the duece side complement her game because she’s pretty effective at trading angles.

She should beat Sramkova, and it’s a good first round because Rebecca will make her play a lot of tennis. Swiatek might benefit from going back to a less aggressive style, because she never really was a Federer style player, and because her athletic ability means she doesn’t have to go for broke. Swiatek in 2.

Mirra Andreeva vs Bucsa :

Andreeva has reached a level of consistent results in big tournaments that makes this pretty impossible for Bucsa. Cristina is putting together more solid performances and she hits the ball huge when she’s on, but the consistency is a work in progress. Andreeva in 2.

Lamens vs Krueger :

Krueger seems like the next Rybakina/Sabalenka type, and the unforced errors are starting to slow down. She’s right on the edge of winning this match. Lamens has been a workhorse this year, but she seems like she’s slowing down a bit. She won’t be able to hit through Krueger, but extending rallies can pay dividends on clay. There are some big ifs here on Suzanne’s side. If she’s flat like she has been in a few matches recently, she’ll get roasted. Against someone like Ashlyn, you have to keep the ball in the court in neutral rallies or it lets her open up. For me, Krueger is a player I wait a round on, to see how she’s playing. Here, I guess I can’t, so I will take Lamens in 3. She has a lot of heart and the slow clay will give her a better chance.

Volynets vs Garland :

This is a good match for Garland honestly. Volynets can play tennis from now until forever, but she doesn’t really have a powerful offense. Garland is a new name on tour, but she looks like she really understands tennis. A great deal of power, a pretty good service delivery, and good court sense helped her deliver 3 upsets in a row in the qualifiers, and winning immediately at the next level is a promising sign since she had been dominating things at the ITF level recently. This is the perfect next step up, and I think it’ll be close. If Garland is as good as I think she is, this is a spot she can win, but it will take a long time, and that calls stamina into question. Tentatively, Garland in 3.

Sierra vs Putintseva :

Yulia seems completely lost on clay, and I don’t really remember that being the case in past seasons so it’s a puzzle. Sierra is a major talent, but she’s not the largest person so she still struggles at tour level. She can win this, but stylistically I think it’s a big ask for her to outlast Putintseva. If she can win a long 3-set battle against one of the tours best pushers, I’ll be very impressed, but right now Putintseva has not done anything to demonstrate that she’s capable of winning a match, so I have to lean towards Sierra. Sierra in 2-3.

Kasatkina vs Siniakova :

Kasatkina is having an abysmal month. There’s just nothing bolstering her chances here other than belief. Clay is not ideal for her because she lacks power to hit through the court, but in past seasons she was able to outlast people. She’s having a really tough time holding serve, and Siniakova hits the ball hard so this has potential to be close. Despite the Kasatkina slump, I have to expect her to win here because Siniakova has struggled to win matches also. Good draw I guess for both. Kasatkina in Kasat3na.

Jeanjean vs Begu :

Well deserved wildcard and a winnable first round for Jeanjean. It’s really her forehand vs Begu’s two swings, which means she’ll have to do a lot of running to win this. Begu is not really at her best anymore but on clay she’s playing decent. The crowd support will be on Jeanjean’s side, but Begu has a pretty even keel so I don’t think she’ll get rattled. I just don’t think Jeanjean’s defense will frustrate Begu, even if if forces her to play extra tennis. Begu in 3.

Ruse vs Kessler :

Kessler has struggled to win matches on clay, and Ruse has struggled to win matches in general but is at her best on clay. She just defeated Sierra and P. Kudermetova last week also, so I think she’s a bit sharper right now. This is really anyone’s match with neither in their best shape. Ruse in 3.

Osaka vs Badosa :

Osaka’s resurgence on clay is pretty fun. I still think she makes a few too many errors to win a match like this comfortably, and Badosa had a good prep for this in her three set loss to Samsonova in Strasbourg. Badosa’s main thing is defending well, and her height and reach should help a little in returning Osaka’s serve. There’s really no way to dismiss Osaka quickly, but I think Paola is the more stable player and the French crowd loves players that dig in and win long points. Badosa in 3.

Muchova vs Parks :

Muchova is usually injured these days, but she’s still better on clay than most of the tour. Parks is not really doing well on clay, and I don’t think she’s the type of player to quickly adjust either. She has a server’s chance, but Muchova (if she’s healthy) wins this in 2.

Jacquemot vs Sakkari :

Tricky spot for Sakkari. Jacquemot has a very unique game. She hits the ball hard, but likes to use a lot of height and depth. She’ll go for moonballs if she’s in trouble in the rally, and she has a sneakily good serve. Sakkari tends to struggle in her first meeting with a player, because she doesn’t really problem-solve that well on the court. If Jacquemot is playing well, this could wind up in a third set, and the crowd will be as big of a factor as they can here. I don’t find Sakkari the most zen on the court, so this is one of those tricky first rounds. Sakkari in 3.

Avanesyan vs Kalinina :

Both of these players have been a bit inactive. Avanesyan is such a good defender that I like her chances here. Maybe a 30% chance that Kalinina plays well, but she does have the exact level of offense to beat a good baseliner. Avanesyan in 3.

Boisson vs Mertens :

Boisson popped up on my radar this year with a series of excellent wins at the ITF and Challenger level. For most of tennis, she popped up on the radar when Harriet Dart made some comments about her fragrance level during their match. The fact that it was during a loss made Dart’s comments less believable, and Boisson’s post tagging Dove about a possible deodorant partnership made it pretty clear Dart was just being a salty idiot. Even if your opponent smells rough, shut up. I was invited to play in an International Basque Pelota event some years ago, and the guy I played in round one was straightup not wearing deodorant. Honestly, that game has some proximity, and it did make me not want to be out there any longer than necessary, but I didn’t go making stupid hurtful comments. Maybe the dudes luggage arrived late, maybe he had some allergies to stuff or some medical reason, or maybe he just likes to get funky. It’s not my business, and Dart has kinda exposed herself as a knob for this one.

Anyway, Boisson is a really promising talent. She hits the ball well, she’s in great shape, and she’s coming into this on home soil on a stretch of wins after winning the ITF75 title at Saint Gaudens. I don’t actually think she can beat Mertens, but she can make it into a close match. Elyse has found some of her best tennis recently and she’s serving really well. That’ll be the big decider here for me. Boisson is capable from the baseline but I think Mertens is more likely to hang onto a lead. Mertens in 2-3.

Frech vs Jabeur :

This part of the draw has given me trouble for the past few seasons. This is where I just blindly pick Jabeur even though she’s suffered losses to players worse than Frech and random withdrawals. Ons’ ability is just excellent, and so it’s almost like I hope she’ll be healthy and I hope she’ll be focused. Jabeur does lead the h2h 2-0 and Frech just lost to Blinkova, so this is a winnable match. It’s just tough to believe Jabeur will dig in here when Frech can be so solid with her ballstriking and Jabeur’s fitness is so elusive. Jabeur in 2 or a withdrawal.

Selekhmeteva vs Vondrousova :

Vondrousova is that friend you forget about and then they pull up at the party and you’re like “oh, they’re here, that’s cool” but the you forget to talk to them and then you don’t see them again but you don’t even realize it until you see them at a party and you’re like “oh, they’re here, that’s cool” and that’s basically the entire relationship forever until they win Wimbledon or something. She hasn’t played since February and I don’t really expect her to win here. She’s definitely better at tennis and has a more complex game than Selekhmeteva, but Oksana is crushing the ball and just played really well in qualifying. In the finals she beat Radivojevic, a player who I think will be on tour by next season, and this is a great spot for her to snag a rusty player. Selekhmeteva will need patience here, but her game is basically “hit as hard as I can until you are gone” so the focus level is there automatically. Selekhmeteva in 2.

Carle vs Li :

This is tricky. I find Ann Li’s range to be extremely wide. At her best, she hits clean winners and covers the court well and serves decent. The rest of the time, she can barely find the court. She wins 2,2 or she loses 2,0. Carle is a really physically strong baseliner, who doesn’t really take a ton of risks and excels on clay. Li will have ample chances to go for shots here, but her percentages really will be important (obv, but still). Since Carle is a player who tends to maintain her level once she starts winning, I think she’s likely to outlast Li. Li’s loss to Joint indicates she can be dragged into errors by a good defender, and Carle hits the ball a bit heavier than Joint but not as aggressively. Should be close. Carle in 3.

Todoni vs Pegula :

This is unfortunate. I’m a big Todoni fan. Her game is really solid, and her offense is huge in her weight class. Pegula is a step up I don’t think she can make, and it’s likely that Jess is able to defend well enough to earn errors. Pegula in 2, but in a few years I think Todoni will be able to beat this tier of player.

Keys vs Saville :

Madison Keys isn’t the best on clay, but she’s playing well here. Good work from Saville to navigate qualifying, but she plays behind her forehand and defense and I don’t think they’re up to the task. Keys in 2.

Monnet vs Boulter :

Monnet had a really difficult qualifying draw, and I think her getting through and Boulter being better on fast courts gives her a shot here. It would be Monnet’s best win on tour, but she’s comfortable and playing well. Monnet in 3.

Wickmayer vs Azarenka :

Nice matchup of veterans. Wickmayer hasn’t done much lately. Azarenka in 2.

Gracheva vs Kenin :

Gracheva is not winning a ton of matches, but she’s raising her level gradually. This should be fun. Right now Kenin is hinting at playing near her old levels, so I think she gets through in the end, but since Gracheva has such a good forehand this could get close. Kenin in 2 close sets.

Haddad Maia vs Baptiste :

A while ago I was complaining about BHM slumping. Now I kinda wish she still was, because this match is impossible to call. Bella played great in Strasbourg, but that level brings her just up to where Baptiste has been for more of this season. Hailey has greatly improved her fitness, and the results are coming. She has the power to hit through Haddad Maia, and I think the fact that she’s been playing well for a longer stretch will let her play well in the big moment where Haddad may blink. Very 50/50 spot here. Baptiste in 3.

Hibino vs Uchijima :

Hibino and Uchijima are both solid baseliners. Hibino might be at her sharpest since she came through qualifying, but Uchijima hits harder than her and serves a bit better. It’s really a match where both will feel comfortable, but I think Uchijima has a chance to win it in 2.

Parry vs Montgomery :

Parry party. Diane has kinda disappeared from the tour for a while, but she’s still capable of some solid tennis, and playing at home against an opponent who isn’t totally comfortable on clay yet is a good spot. Lefty vs one-handed backhand can be a problem, but I think Parry can navigate this eventually. Parry in 3.

Bouzas Maneiro vs Navarro :

I shouldn’t complain about long rallies at Roland Garros, but there are a lot of matches here that are hard to call because of the amount of tennis it’ll take either player to win. Bouzas Maneiro tends to play to the level of her opponent and in big matches she thrives, so this is a spot where I think she’ll do well. Navarro really isn’t great on clay yet, but her overall tennis and athleticism are at such a high level that she’s winning most matches anyway. Navarro in 3 feels most likely.

Krejcikova vs Maria :

Maria hasn’t been able to win on clay this year, and Krejcikova is inactive but usually plays well at majors. Krejcikova in 2 or 3 if she’s completely rusty.

Kudermetova vs Tomova :

Tough opener for Kudermetova but she’s been at her best the past month. Plenty of unforced errors but plenty of good aggressive tennis. Kudermetova in 2.

Townsend vs Cocciaretto :

If you went through the draw to find the players with the worst unforced errors coupled with the most perfect points, these might be your winners. Townsend is in after losing in the finals of qualifying and she should like her chances her. Both players don’t move that well but have a big serve and good offense. Cocciaretto should be a bit more comfortable on clay, and I like her to win in a lopsided 3 setter.

Bronzetti vs Alexandrova :

Good Alexandrova wins this in two. Any other Alexandrova loses. I’d love to say she’s going to play well but she just lost to Uchijima in two in her last outting. I think this is a matchup nightmare for Alexandrova because she doesn’t really have rally tolerance and Bronzetti hits solid and extends rallies. This would be a wild upset on paper but I am a Bronzetti fan and Alexandrova tends to trend in the same direction several matches in a row. Bronzetti in 2.

Kalinskaya vs Bouzkova :

Kalinskaya is playing well so this is simultaneously a great draw and a rough one. She’ll play Gauff early but she’ll play Gauff early. We’ll see. Bouzkova is playing well but she’s the defensive aspect of Kalinskaya’s game without the offense. It’s a tough but fair warmup. Anna did withdraw from her last match so there are some question marks here. Kalinskaya in 2.

Kartal vs Erika Andreeva :

Andreeva hasn’t been too active, and these two have similar games. Both grind away, and both have heavy forehands. I like Kartal because she’s a bit more active and hits a bit harder. Kartal in 3.

Paquet vs Valentova :

Valentova is tremendous. She has one of the scariest forehand techniques I’ve seen in a while, and if you are 400 miles off the court, she will still hit it as hard as she possible can. She’s a junior champ and has been doing damage on the ITF tour. To be in your first major and be favored over Chloe Paquet (who has tour wins on ever surface against good opposition) is really impressive, but that’s where we’re at. The win against Waltert sealed the deal for me in the finals of qualifying. Waltert has been the hallmark of major qualifying on the women’s tour the past few seasons. Paquet having such a good serve will be a tough question for Valentova, but it seems like the junior standout’s power is just paying off too well right now. Valentova in 2-3.

Gauff vs Gadecki :

Gauff! Great showing in Rome. It’s tough for Gauff because she wins even when she’s not playing well, and because the only results that seem acceptable are title wins. It’s really tough to win titles, and even we’re expecting her to do it while working through mechanical issues. Her forehand deceleration is a major problem, and if Zheng has isolated that wing she would have won their semifinal. Gauff had a patch of good serving and forehand play, but she’ll need to really take some time in the offseason to reshape that wing. I know it’s difficult, but Gauff has done everything else with aplomb (got to use a big word hooray), so I think she’s capable. Gadecki is too error prone to win this match on clay, but she has a really good game and in the future I think she’ll crack the top 50. Gauff in 2.