2025 Roland Garros Women's Singles Final

Sabalenka vs Gauff :

This is becoming one of the best rivalries on tour in this era. Due to their consistent deep runs on tour, Sabalenka and Gauff have met 10 times. It’s currently split 5-5. They’re 1-1 on clay, and 5 have gone to a deciding set. In short, this finals is going to be great. It’s a spot where Sabalenka has looked way more impressive so far, but Gauff’s strengths may be the right formula to slow her down.

All tournament, Sabalenka has looked too powerful for her opponents. If they have a similarly large offense, she beats them with her movement. If they move better, she adds power to her returns to keep control of the rallies. Sabalenka has cut down her unforced errors, improved her backhand, and added stamina to an already dangerous game. This was clear in the semifinals, as she won the final set against Swiatek 6-0. It was a monumental clash, which saw Sabalenka rush out to a 4-1 lead in the first, only to wind up down 5-4 as Iga found her best tennis just when she needed it. The set really could have gone to Swiatek, but it ended up in a tiebreaker and Sabalenka’s serve is a huge weapon in that format. The second saw Iga pick up an early break, which wasn’t so surprising given the level she locked into during the first set comeback. The early break is the hardest to hold onto (obv, but also true) in tennis, and Swiatek did so with aplomb. To Sabalenka’s credit, she hung onto her serve from there and forced Swiatek to serve it out for a 6-4 win. At that point, I would have thought Swiatek had more left in the tank, but Sabalenka closed out impressively. Her return of serve became a huge issue, and from there she won most of the key points. She has great raw power, but she chose to go behind Swiatek time and time again and that really cut down on Swiatek’s speed advantage.

While Swiatek and Sabalenka were playing one of the best matches of the tournament, Gauff was ending the Cendrillon run of Lois Boisson. Boisson moves all the way up to 65 in the rankings here, and given her serve, forehand, variety, and fitness, it is likely that she stays on tour. It is a life-changing result for her, and by all accounts she seems like a great person for it to happen to. Despite demonstrating great skill and poise this week, Boisson finally ran out of shots against Gauff. She had spent 10 hours and 24 minutes on the court leading to the semifinals, and had hit huge forehands in every round and played with great depth. Against Gauff, errors finally flowed. This could easily be because of the threat of Gauff’s speed forcing her to go a bit bigger, or just general fatigue, but in any event, Gauff performed admirably. She kept the pressure on, didn’t force the issue on offense, and just made it clear that Boisson would have to hit her way out of the match. To Lois’s credit, she tried to, Gauff is just one of the hardest players to hit through on tour.

I think it was a good advantage for Gauff to play Boisson in a late round. It gave her team time to map out Boisson’s game, and they also got to see how effective Andreeva’s approach was and where it went wrong (getting a little too passive with the lead). Boisson missed the timing cutoff from Wimbledon, but she can still enter qualifying. Her serve looks good enough to get her in, but the next generation of women’s tennis is really strong so it’s not guaranteed. Zeynep, Seidel, Todoni, Jovic, Jacquemot, Jones, Waltert, Stakusic, Bejlek, Fruhvirtova, Selekmeteva, Snigur, it’s just a parade of great players and I’m only naming a handful.

The most recent meeting between Gauff and Sabalenka was a few weeks ago in Madrid. Sabalenka won 6-3, 7-6, and that’s about what I’m expecting here. These are slower conditions (the altitude in Madrid helps servers), but there is rain in the forecast. This means they might close the roof and that benefits Sabalenka. The diminished wind helps her serving and ball-striking. Conversely, it may make things a little more humid which could slow the court a tiny bit. It feels like an overall boost to Sabalenka, but it’s something to keep an eye on. So far this week, Gauff has served well, but it tends to fade as the match goes on. Sabalenka seems to be able to up her delivery as things go, and since it might be a long match locking into a level helps a lot. For Gauff to win, she has to outlast the barrage, but I don’t really see Sabalenka getting tired. She’s played her way through a more difficult bracket (Rakhimova, Teichmann, Danilovic, Anisimova, Zheng, Swiatek) but has shown her level to be a bit clear of each of her opponents. There was never a time where she looked tired, and only a few where she looked frustrated. Sabalenka still gets angry, but her team seems like a good support system and her attitude has improved greatly. This has occurred during a period when she started winning constantly, so it’s a bit of a chicken egg situation, but basically she has added the ability to mentally reset to her game. Gauff (Gadecki, Valentova, Bouzkova, Alexandrova, Keys, Boisson) has played great, and only dropped one set to Keys, but it was a lighter bracket and she’ll have to level up immediately against Aryna.

Since they always play each other close, there’s no real reason to count Gauff out. Her speed lets her extend rallies and she has one of the best defensive backhands on tour. If the ball is slow, she’s also excellent at taking it down the line. If Sabalenka gets frustrated or finds the net, she can lose a few games here or there. My hesitancy to expect this is based in her shot selection thus far this tournament. She’s had spots where a line was open or she had the option to try to end a rally early, and she hit one more drive almost every time. She’s been willing to wear her opponents down, and been solid in converting the actual setups she gets. Sabalenka has basically earned her first Roland Garros title, and it will take a large regression from her or a heroic effort from Gauff to change that outcome. I expect this to be close as long as Gauff’s serving is solid, and for Sabalenka to slowly wear her forehand down as the match goes. Gauff is actually playing as well as I’ve seen her play and looks very determined this week, but I think she has fewer ways to score and outlasting Sabalenka seems somewhat unlikely given her current consistency when applying her powerful offense. Sabalenka in 2 close sets.