2025 Roland Garros Men's Semifinal - Sinner vs Djokovic

Sinner vs Djokovic :

Here we go. For the next 24 hours, I will accept any and all Djokovic fan criticism. Anyone who wants to call me a fool or a hater or make up some fanfiction about me being biased is welcome to it. I was wrong, and the GOAT humbled me as much as he did Zverev. In a 3 hour and 17 minute masterclass, Djokovic taught the world that dropshots can completely undo Alexander Zverev. Djokovic is solid from the baseline and very accurate, but he caught Zverev and forced errors almost constantly with his dropshots. When approaching a backhand (the side he hit most of them from), he would waver his racquet at the high point for a bit, and by the second half of the match it almost felt like he could pull the trigger at any moment. That has to be stressful for an opposing player, especially once they’re in a rhythm of making errors, and especially when Djokovic lands 35 dropshots in the match. 

Zverev got to most of the dropshots, but he made mistakes. When you get to one and clip the net, you tend to play the ball deeper on the next one. When you get to one and your re-drop doesn’t work, you tend to play the next one cross-court. What happened in the quarterfinals was pretty wild, as Zverev just made tactical mistake after tactical mistake. At the very end of the match, Zverev finally pushed two down the line (when Novak was serving for the match) and managed to score off both. On the third, even though the same play was open, he tried to flick it cross-court. It’s understandable. When playing a solid opponent like Djokovic, you think you have to come up with something special or go for some variation. I actually think this mindset is part of what unravelled Zverev.

Early in the match, Zverev and Djokovic both seemed to be playing carefully. Most of the exchanges were cross-court, and Djokovic wasn’t really putting much pace on the ball. In these somewhat generic rallies, Zverev looked to be the better player. It’s the style of tennis he plays anyway, and the only way I felt he would win this match was by outlasting Djokovic. Admittedly, I did think that is what the outcome would be, so a conservative approach made sense, but Zverev soon went away from that. Zverev won the first, a set without much excitement. Novak wasn’t playing many dropshots yet. I’m not sure whether that was because he felt Zverev was moving too well early on, because he wanted to introduce it later, because Zverev lacked depth on his shots as the match went on, or for any other reason. In any event, midway through the second things still looked fairly even. A botched line call gave Djokovic a break (Hawkeye showed the ball was good), and Zverev unravelled. He started trying to infuse pace with his forehand, and clipped the tape and made errors doing so. Even when these landed, Novak defends so well to the backhand that it just basically reset the rally. Hitting a deep backhand cross is good, but if I return it and you hit another of the same shot, I’m kinda still there.

Zverev was still serving well (70% first serves and 76% win on 1st), but he was really struggling to win second serve points (only 35% win on 2nd serves for the match). I don’t think he was in huge trouble yet, but he no longer looked comfortable to just hit and outlast Djokovic. He was trying to put a little extra in each shot, but not really creating any shorter angles or surprise while doing so. He did hit some deep backhands in the match in neutral rallies, but this isn’t going to score on Djokovic because the shots are telegraphed. Courier says a lot of insightful stuff and a lot of silly stuff, but one thing he invited viewers to do was to watch Djokovic move during baseline rallies. He shifts to the next shot almost at the same time as Zverev is preparing it. For Zverev to win the matchup, he had to change things up and play much more aggressively. I’m not sure that was possible, as he looked tense the moment he lost the lead. That tension and fear to miss is perhaps a product of the moment, the opponent, and past struggles with forehand errors, but he looked very tight. In the 4th when the match was over, Djokovic had some lapses in play and Zverev had control and a break point or two. On those points though, Zverev was just unable to go for a big shot.

Even thought Zverev lost the usual slightly disappointing way, all credit has to go to Novak. Zverev had good numbers on serve, but Djokovic had more aces (6-4), didn’t double fault a single time, and had better #s on 1st serve and 1st serve win (71%/76%). The question for next round is really how effective Djokovic’s dropshots will be. Sinner actually got caught out there a handful of times by Bublik, and Djokovic plays that shot extremely well on his backhand side. He holds his swing very late also, so it will be a day of sprinting for Jannik. If there are any lingering stamina issues on either side, we’ll get to see them. I feel guilty liking Sinner here, but I think he’s levels above Zverev right now. He’s getting really low on every ball and hitting so cleanly that he’s not making many errors at all, and he has the timing to pounce when there’s an opportunity. Anytime his opponent is stretched wide, he’s able to step quickly in and take the next ball on the rise to create the cross-court angle. It’s fun to watch, and there are parallels to Djokovic in his game at the moment. The way he’s able to stretch and defend to the backhand side is very similar, and it negates a lot of his opponents offense. That flexibility and stability to generate low depth from there keeps opponents from coming to net, and resets rallies. Since Sinner has a great ability to hit that slapshot forehand on the run, there’s pressure on opponents to beat him to the duececourt even when they open it up.

I think Sinner’s ability to push the pace without errors may make him a favorite here even though Djokovic is playing excellent. The dropshots and consistency make Novak a likely candidate to play Sinner close, but I think Jannik is way more composed on the court and has the proper training and skills to execute when he does get to dropshots on time. The ability of Nadal and Djokovic to elevate in the second half of their career has been unreal, and Djokovic is classic for only playing to the level he needs to as he goes through a tournament. He hasn’t looked like the hyper-aggressive Olympic winner we saw last season, but maybe he’ll come out firing early. This match is a reward for tennis. As much as I felt silly watching Zverev lose, Djokovic Sinner is a way better semifinal.

Problems for Sinner are slim, but Djokovic’s backhand is just as good as his which will create a new dynamic he hasn’t seen yet this event. Novak doesn’t go down the line as often, but he’ll be able to trade cross-court fine which is one of places that Sinner has scored on his opposition pretty consistently thus far. Djokovic is also a great returner so Sinner will have his first full day of having to create his own points. Bublik bailed out of a lot of rallies and Djokovic doesn’t really have to. He didn’t look completely fresh at the end of the match with Zverev, but he was still lunging and moving fairly well at the end of the match so this could be a long day.

It’s hard to find weaknesses in either of these players honestly, but I find a few more potential problems for Djokovic to solve. One, he’s older, and Sinner has run through a somewhat difficult draw in less time. Two, Sinner is a much better returner than Zverev. Djokovic was able to score constantly on his wide serve from the duece-court last round. That will be removed against Jannik, who hangs in pretty close and chips or drives returns on the forehand side. Novak did showcase the ability to go T late in the match against Zverev, but that’s probably the side Sinner returns better with. I don’t think this match is going to be decided by aces, and I think it’ll be on Djokovic to find a way out of long scrambles. Sinner has been running every opponent into the ground, and he doesn’t really have a weakness. He hits bigger than Djokovic on both wings, he might be a little quicker at this point (his footwork has been excellent and proactive all week), and he might be a little more durable than in the past given the muscle he packed on in the last few months. It all adds up to slight advantages for a guy who seems to have risen a level since his suspension. Sinner in 4.