2025 Roland Garros Competition Highlights and Tournament Nuggets

Just wanted to throw out a quick recap of all the competitions, and then some short takeaways from one of the best tournaments in a long time.

Degensclub Competition Winners :

-Goldenboy8014 wins yet another odds competition. The odds comp is designed to allow people to see just how difficult it is to profit while choosing sportsbetting lines, yet Goldenboy turns in profitable runs week after week. It is a bit ridiculous, but someday I wish to meet this man who is clearly from the future. Congrats on the win!

-Congrats to Inflated who won the ATP bracket competition, including having the semis and finals exactly right. The finals was decided by just 9 points (basically a difference of a single early round matchup, and in second place was a familiar name (Goldenboy8014). Rounding out the top 5 were Miszka, Willtoc, and danpa72. Congrats all, and thanks for playing!

-Congrats to zac8000 for winning the WTA bracket competition! Zac had the finals exactly right, but most impressive was that he predicted the Boisson run, and had her going all the way to the quarters in his draw. Unreal stuff. Rounding out the top 5 were azucarx, Repox, vk2499, and theawkdork. Nice work

ATP Takeaways :

-Sinner and Alcaraz have passed the rest of the tour by (except Djokovic). This is likely to become more pronounced as they keep meeting in finals. Sinner suffered a crushing defeat, but those situations where you get to go all out against the best of the best elevate your game, and the experience is invaluable. These two will blink less in big moments than their opponents, and their meetings will push both to higher and higher levels. This is how the big 3 and Murray managed to create a big gap between them and the rest of the tour, and with Sinner and Alcaraz likely to be on opposite sides of the draw for foreseeable future, the second tier guys like Draper/Fils/Mensik/Zverev/Shelton will need to really put in a lot of work to catch up. Djokovic can still compete on all the fast surfaces, but with time working against him it’s likely that Alcaraz and Sinner lock up all the major titles for the next 4-5 years. Mensik has shown hints of brilliance and at 19 he’ll likely get there, but it feels like his defensive abilities are not on the same level as these two. Fonseca has the skill and shotmaking, but physically I think it will be 3-4 years before he’s able to last through a long draw, and getting his unforced error count down will not be an overnight project.

-Rinderknech’s 6-4, 6-3, 7-5 loss actually looks a lot better in hindsight. He’s been struggling, but he pushed Sinner in the first round and might have a decent grass season with his penchant for serve & volley.

-Bublik has broken through the mental barriers that kept him from competing fully on the court. He was always a threat but big results tend to shore up an imagined “legacy” and let players compete even freer. Good Bublik is good for the tour.

-Henrique Rocha has a bright future. Basilashvili came into the event in great form and rolled through qualifying, and Rocha shut him down and backed it up by beating Mensik.

-Norrie is back to near his old level. He’s still likely to have ebbs and flows, but the struggle period in his return to the tour seems to be over.

-Musetti has improved his tennis to the highest level he’s ever been at, but his play-style seems to prohibit him from outlasting any of the top guys in the 3/5 format. It’s not outlandish that a guy who runs down every single ball and makes acrobatic gets runs out of juice against the best offenses, but its something he’ll need to shore up if he wants to contend for majors.

-Tiafoe can still compete when he wants to. Grass and the North American tour are his best surfaces, and he’ll be a dangerous floater in these draws. His week to week level can drop and his mechanics require a bit more focus to play at the top level, but he’s one of the few who’s able to physically compete with the top tier even though on paper he’s not as good as them.

-Shelton’s offense is able to score on anyone, and that is a huge asset on tour. He gave Alcaraz the 2nd best match on clay, and heading into the event I don’t think this would have been one of the expected outcomes. There are still things to work on for Shelton to be able to win against the top tier in majors, but he has made progress each season on tour. He’s hitting his backhand harder than her used to, and this keeps him out of trouble. Alcaraz isolated his backhand and trapped him there on big points, so the next step for Shelton is to work on being able to create sharp angles cross and to be able to take the ball down the line for effect. He’s fixed the defensive struggles, and now it’s time to open up. 

Shelton always goes huge on his forehand, and the “go for the gusto” shot selection had hurt him in the past. The crowd loves it, but it’s tough to produce highlight shots from bad positions. In the offseason, Shelton put on a bunch of muscle, and the work in the gym has allowed him to actually execute the type of hyper-aggressive forehand play he wants in his game. I’m not vaulting him into the top tier, but he has the base now to get there, and I’m always optimistic about a player who continues to develop while on tour.

-After being mired at the Challenger level for so long that Challenger results actually got him back on tour, Damir Dzumhur is here to stay. His game seemed ineffective on tour 3-4 years ago and he fell down the rankings, but since his return he’s found constant ways to win and his atttitude seems better. No, he didn’t have a chance against Alcaraz, but the tour needs guys who make their clear losses into wildly entertaining showcases for the crowd.

-Zverev’s chances to win a major may be finally cooked. All of his losses in big moments are to the exact same problems. Lack of aggression, lack of depth on the forehand, and overly deep court position. Djokovic played a great level in Roland Garros so it’s not a bad loss, but Zverev winning majors is a door that seems closed after watching the level that Sinner and Alcaraz brought in the finals.

WTA Takeaways :

-Gauff won RG, and while the windy conditions helped a little bit, this is not the first time that she’s won a big title. Her work on her forehand and serve continue to be her main focus, but for her to win RG without those things fully ironed out has to be scary for the rest of the tour. She’s already one of the best movers, and her backhand is possible the best on tour. When her serve lands, it’s really effective, so if that and her forehand continue to improve she might become even tougher to beat. There are some technical issues with those things that will be tough to iron out, but if anyone is capable it’s Gauff. Scary to talk about someone making big improvements when they already won two majors, but that’s where we’re at.

-Danilovic was a constant qualifier a few seasons ago at majors, and now she’s winning mutiple matches almost every time she shows up. I don’t think her defense is good enough to contend for titles, but her groundstrokes are unplayable when she gets a full swing.

-Tauson and Anisimova are dangerous floaters in any draw. You can’t outrun the ball in sport and they both hit the ball so big that they can score on anyone. It’s really great to see Anisimova starting to enjoy tennis again, and Tauson seems to be improving her fitness. She’s a player like Draper who tended to lose to stamina issues early in her career, so her being able to keep hitting in long matches is a great sign.

-Mboko is here to stay. The young Canadian talent arrived on tour and won some matches, but most junior phenoms have a stretch of losing. She has managed to keep winning a match or two at every event, and this is great news because her game still has a lot of areas to develop. Her defense is incredible, and her serve and hitting are solid. If she gets more accurate and more comfortable on tour she could land in the top 30.

-Paolini is one of the smallest players on tour and hits the ball harder than most of it. There’s no special analysis here, it’s just wild to watch her crush forehand winners after running sprints back and forth for 5-6 shots.

-Rybakina is back. After her coaching issues made the news, she seemed to really struggle on court, but in RG and Strasbough she played well again, and looked happy to be playing. Her demeanor has always been pretty calm on court, so seeing her agitated in that slump was likely a sign that she was not enjoy being out there. She’s one of the few players that can serve out Sabalenka at Wimbledon, so it’s great for the tour.

-Joanna Garland is on her way to the top 100. Her court-sense reminds me of Andreescu, as she isn’t necessarily dominant but always seems to make good choices about where to shift on defense and always chooses good but somewhat repeatable shots on offense. She has a solid serve and good power, and given her run at the ITF level she’s likely to continue finding ways to win on tour.

-No surprise here, but Lois Boisson had a life-changing RG. She’s now ranked 65, and will basically be on tour for the foreseeable future. Her game is good enough and her serve/forehand are strong enough to stay in the top 100, but her run was good enough that even if she struggles, the French association will be willing to prop her up with wildcards. Big stuff for a solid player, and given her commitment to fitness and relative inexperience on tour she may continue to improve.

-Marketa Vondrousova looked pretty good for her first event back, and is likely one of the darkhorses for Wimbledon. It’s easy to see her as one of the rusty veterans on tour, but Vondrousova is only 25. Still a lot of tennis left and despite the titles going to the more powerful players, her counterpunching can sometimes unravel someone really good.

-Kenin has made her way back into form. It has taken a long long time, but she finally is playing top 30 ball most of the time. I don’t expect more major titles to come because the tour has shifted and has great depth, but it’s fun to see her skillful baselining and puzzlingly indifferent ball toss.

-Hailey Baptiste has become a threat to anyone. She has such easy power and a great serving technique, and her work to improve her fitness has allowed her to compete at the top level. If she’s able to lock in a bit more on defense, she can have some big hardcourt results.

-Valentova is a recent junior champ, and her game is big enough to be on tour right now. I’d expect her to wreak havoc in the qualifiers at the majors for the rest of the year, and to win enough at the ITF/100k level that she’ll be in the top 100 by next season.